Excellent analysis! It's always interesting to learn how other forecasters model such complex issues.
While the slowdown in the decline of new HIV cases coinciding with the start of PEPFAR is certainly due to multiple complex factors, it's plausible that the initiative's investment in scaling up testing and case identification played a significant role. The program likely found an important number of previously undiagnosed individuals, thus altering the perceived rate at which newly discovered cases were declining. The actual number of new infections might have been declining, while the measured rate stabilized.
Excellent analysis! It's always interesting to learn how other forecasters model such complex issues.
While the slowdown in the decline of new HIV cases coinciding with the start of PEPFAR is certainly due to multiple complex factors, it's plausible that the initiative's investment in scaling up testing and case identification played a significant role. The program likely found an important number of previously undiagnosed individuals, thus altering the perceived rate at which newly discovered cases were declining. The actual number of new infections might have been declining, while the measured rate stabilized.